Friday, October 5, 2012

The Truth about the Homicide Rate and violent crime

We all hear it every day from the anti-rights cultists, their blind followers, the main stream media. "Gun violence is at epidemic proportions." But, what's the truth about the gun violence? The truth is, the homicide rate is nearly the lowest level it's been in 50 years. 1962 had a homicide rate of 4.6, 2011 had a homicide rate of 4.7.

I looked at the homicide rates since the 1900's. I certainly didn't want to make a graph with 111 entries, so I averaged the homicide rate for each decade. While the graph shows that the 70s had the highest average, the highest homicide rate was actually in 1980 at 10.7/100k, however, looking back over the decades, we can see that the current average for 2010s is lower than any time since 1907.

So what is 'epidemic' about homicides? The 24 hour news cycle and the ability for anyone and everyone to KNOW about the homicides. Homicide rates aren't going up, the reporting of homicides is going up. The mantra of the media is 'if it bleeds, it leads'.

The next time that an anti-rights cultist bigot tell you that the gun death is out of control, remind them that most of them aren't old enough to remember when the 'gun death' rate was lower, unless of course they're 70 years old.


Historically, homicide makes up about 1.2% of the total violent crimes and, historically, guns are used in about 68% of murders. If the murder rate is going down, so is the murder rate with firearms, or 'gun deaths' as the anti-rights cultists calls it.

Moving on to the Violent Crime Rates.

As you can see, the violent crime rate is also falling. Not quite as fast as the murder rate, but still. As a matter of fact, the violent crime rate hasn't been this low since 1972, when the rate was 401.0 and for reference, the violent crime rate in 1962 was 162.3.

All information was obtained from the FBI Uniform Crime Reports


  1. The antis have a really odd sense of risk. The majority of them are relatively wealthy white people living in safe areas whose probability of ever being shot, let alone murdered by anyone is so small and wildly underproportioned to their screeches for gun control. They're afraid of "legal" gun owners flipping out and going on a shooting rampage. Or "legal" gun owners mishandling their guns and sending errant bullets their way. The probability of that happening is so small, but looms so large in their fevered imaginations that it is really kind of sad. I am coming to realize that their accusations towards supporters of gun rights as "paranoid" are simply projections of their own psychoses.

    1. "I am coming to realize that their accusations towards supporters of gun rights as "paranoid" are simply projections of their own psychoses."

      Indeed sir, you are correct. Elliot Fineman, of National Gun Victims Action Counsel is probably the worst and thinks that everyone is one bad hair day away from going on a killing spree.

  2. That's the first time I've heard of Fineman or that organization. I read his bio and the loss of his son is tragic. Indeed, the deaths of family members of the other board members are sad testament to the violence committed in this world.

    But looking at the faces of the board, I'm struck by how "white" it is. One of the references I like to look at is a piece by Bill Marsh for the NY Times "An Accounting of Daily Gun Deaths" from back in 2010, I believe. It represents graphically the gun deaths in a typical day for different age groups, men and women, black and white. What hits you is the huge percentage of young, black men murdered each day, and the large number of older white men that commit suicide. What happened to Fineman's son is really, really rare. The people who are truly at risk of being murdered are the urban African-American community. But they have limited representation on the NGVAC board. And by the looks of the majority of men on the board, they're more at risk of dying by their own hand.

    1. All of the gun control organizations are very white.

      Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton are about the only representatives for the black community and I think they both do more harm than good. The problem is that most black victims are killed by black killers and most white victims are killed by white killers. Jessie and Al only grandstand when it's a white on black crime. According to Table 6 of the Uniform Crime Report, 8% of black victims were killed by white offenders. 74% Of those victims were possibly involved in criminal activity. That leaves about 56 white on black homicides for Al and Jessie to grandstand about. You'll notice that they were on the news about ONE homicide this year.

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